Champions League qualification: Epic final day awaits as FIVE teams battle it out

The race for Champions League qualification is heading for an EPIC conclusion on the final day of the season next Sunday.

Premier League winners Liverpool and second-placed Arsenal have already both guaranteed Champions League football.

But after Sunday's results there is now just ONE POINT separating third-in-the-table Newcastle United and Nottingham Forest in seventh.

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Ahead of their rearranged home game with Bournemouth on Tuesday evening, live on Sky Sports, Manchester City have slipped out of the top five.

However, Guardiola's team still have their Champions League destiny in their own hands and will progress into Europe's premier club competition next season with victory in midweek and then at Fulham on the final day.

It's all set up for a blockbuster final day with Nottingham Forest travelling to Chelsea with so much on the line, Newcastle hosting Everton, Aston Villa heading to Old Trafford to face Manchester United and Guardiola's team at Fulham.

Newcastle's remaining fixtures - Points 66, Goal difference + 22

Remaining fixture: Newcastle vs Everton

With every Champions League-related result going against Newcastle this weekend, Eddie Howe's side now face a huge assignment against Everton on the last day - and possibly without Alexander Isak up front.

A draw would only be enough if Aston Villa failed to win, Chelsea or Forest lost, and/or Manchester City failed to win either of their two remaining games.

But the bottom line is that with four teams within a point of them, Newcastle can only contemplate a win being enough on the final day to book a place in the Champions League.

Chelsea - Points 66, Goal difference + 20

Remaining fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea

Because their goal difference is so much better than Villa's, Chelsea will qualify for the Champions League if they win on Sunday at Forest. Even if City have a positive week, a win next Sunday for Chelsea will mean they finish in at least fifth with Forest and Villa below them.

A draw would only be sufficient if two of these three scenarios occur: City lose twice this week, Newcastle are defeated by Everton and Villa lose at Manchester United.

In short, it's win or bust next week for Chelsea at the City Ground.

Aston Villa - Points 66, Goal difference + 9

Remaining fixture: Man United vs Aston Villa

Mathematically, it could be that Villa already have enough to qualify for the Champions League: if City lose both of their two games and Forest are defeated by Chelsea then Villa will finish fifth.

But that's a deeply improbable scenario.

The reality is that Villa, with only a goal difference of plus nine, have to win at Old Trafford on the final day and even then it won't be enough if Newcastle and Chelsea win while City take four points from their final two matches - that set of results will leave City and Villa level on points but with City ahead due to their vastly superior goal difference.

Manchester City - Points 65, Goal difference + 24

Remaining fixtures: Man City vs Bournemouth (Tuesday, kick-off 7pm): Fulham vs Man City

There is now genuine jeopardy around Man City's hopes of a top-five finish following their draw at Southampton and Friday night's wins for Villa and Chelsea.

Mathematically, just a point from their final two matches - at home to Bournemouth and away to Fulham - could be sufficient.

More realistically, at least three points are required, four would almost certainly be enough because of their goal difference and only six would offer a guarantee.

And all this after the huge disappointment of Saturday's FA Cup final.

As Sky Sports' Ben Ransom noted from Wembley: "This defeat is so potentially damaging for Man City, who will end the season trophy-less.

"While Champions League qualification is in their own hands, there is suddenly a huge amount of jeopardy on Tuesday night's game against Bournemouth."

Nottingham Forest - Points 65, Goal difference + 13

Remaining fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea

Let's remove the idea of City losing to both Bournemouth and Fulham from the equation and get straight to the point: Forest have hope but to overtake two teams above them and finish in the top five they will have to beat Chelsea on the final day.

True, they can still finish as one of four teams on 66 points but in that scenario they are near-certain to finish below Newcastle and City on goal difference.

Only a win on the final day will do, and even then Forest will have to hope for two of the following three to happen: City to only take two points or less from the final week, Villa not to win at Manchester United and Newcastle not to beat Everton.

See you on Sunday.

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